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H1B Lottery Odds Calculator 2026: Wage-Weighted Selection Rates

Under the wage-weighted H1B lottery, your salary level determines your selection odds. Calculate your probability by wage level, number of attempts, and degree type.

Step 1 — Select Your Prevailing Wage Level

Wage levels are set by the Department of Labor's prevailing wage determinations for your job title and location. Ask your employer or immigration attorney which level applies to your LCA before filing.

Step 2 — Additional Factors

Each H1B lottery cycle is April 1. "2 attempts" means you plan to enter FY2027 and FY2028.

Your Lottery Probability Estimate

Annual Selection Rate

28.0%

Level II

Cumulative Probability Over 1 Attempt

28.0%

Formula: 1 − (1 − 28.0%)^1

Annual Selection Rate by Wage Level
No degree bonus

Your selected level (Level II) is highlighted below

Level I (~$90K – $120K)Level II (~$120K – $155K)Level III (~$155K – $200K)Level IV ($200K+)
Your Estimated Wage Level: Level II

Level II covers positions with a prevailing wage of ~$120K – $155K (varies by job title, location, and employer type). Experienced individual contributor. Moderate odds. Common for mid-level software engineers.

How wage levels work: The Department of Labor assigns one of four wage levels to each H-1B petition based on the job's prevailing wage in the filing location. Under the wage-weighted lottery introduced for FY2025+, USCIS draws from the highest wage tiers first, giving workers in Level III and IV positions disproportionately better selection odds.

Low Lottery Odds at Level II

Your annual selection rate is only 28%. To improve your odds, consider negotiating a higher job title / salary to qualify for Level III or IV, pursuing an EB-1 or O-1 if you have exceptional qualifications, or targeting cap-exempt employers (universities, nonprofits, government research organizations).

How to Increase Your H1B Lottery Odds
  • 1Target Level III or IV roles — senior, staff, and principal engineer titles typically qualify
  • 2Choose employers in high-cost metros (SF, NY, Seattle) — prevailing wages are higher, pushing your level up
  • 3Pursue a U.S. master's degree — qualifies you for the advanced degree cap (bonus draw before regular cap)
  • 4Consider cap-exempt employers: universities, nonprofit research organizations, and government entities don't use the lottery
  • 5Explore O-1A visas for individuals with extraordinary ability — no lottery, no cap, no waiting

Find Level III and IV Jobs That Boost Your Lottery Odds

Browse H-1B sponsor jobs filtered by wage level. Senior and principal roles at Level III/IV give you up to 4x better lottery odds than entry-level positions.

Related Tools

→ H1B Cost Calculator — See what sponsorship actually costs→ H1B Grace Period Calculator — Know your deadline after layoff

Data Sources & Methodology

Annual selection rates (Level I: 15%, II: 28%, III: 45%, IV: 61%) are modeled from USCIS H-1B Employer Data Hub statistics and NFAP analysis of the wage-weighted lottery introduced for FY2025. The advanced degree cap adds approximately 5 percentage points for Level I/II filers with a qualifying U.S. master's or doctoral degree. Cumulative probability uses the standard independent-events formula: 1−(1−p)^n. Actual outcomes depend on total registration volume each year.

This calculator provides statistical estimates for informational purposes only. H1B lottery outcomes are random within each wage tier. Actual selection rates vary each fiscal year based on total registrations and USCIS policy. Consult a licensed immigration attorney before making any career or visa decisions.