Let’s talk numbers today, because the economic data on immigration policy is staggering – and not in a good way. If you’ve been following H1bVisajobs.com for immigration updates, you know I always try to give you the complete picture. Today, that picture includes some sobering projections about what reducing legal immigration means for the American economy.
The National Foundation for American Policy has released comprehensive analyses that should concern everyone – whether you’re an immigrant, an employer, or just someone who cares about American prosperity. Let me break down what these numbers actually mean.
The Workforce Impact: 6.8 Million Missing Workers by 2028
Here’s the headline number that should make every business leader pay attention: current immigration policies are projected to reduce the U.S. workforce by 6.8 million workers by 2028. That’s not a typo. Nearly seven million fewer workers in just a few years.
According to USCIS data and projections, this reduction comes from multiple policy changes working in concert. The family immigration ban from 39 countries. Reduced refugee admissions. Termination of Temporary Protected Status. Restrictions on H-1B visas. Each policy chips away at the labor supply.
But 2028 is just the beginning. Looking further ahead, these policies could reduce the workforce by 15.7 million by 2035. Fifteen million workers. That’s larger than the entire workforce of some mid-sized countries.
The Growth Rate Impact: One-Third Reduction
Let me explain what this means for economic growth. The economy grows through two main channels: labor force growth and productivity growth. When you reduce the labor supply, you directly impact one of these channels.
NFAP’s analysis concludes that current immigration policies could lower the annual rate of economic growth by almost one-third. Think about that. Over time, that compounds into trillions of dollars in lost economic output.
This isn’t abstract economics. It affects your retirement savings. Your home value. Your job prospects. Your children’s future opportunities. When the economy grows slower, everyone feels it.
What the Bureau of Labor Statistics Data Shows
We don’t have to rely solely on projections. The Bureau of Labor Statistics household survey already shows troubling trends. According to Department of Labor data, there’s been a decline of 1.1 million foreign-born workers since the start of the Trump administration in January 2025.
If you measure from the peak in March 2025, the drop is even more dramatic: 1.5 million fewer foreign-born workers. This is happening right now, not in some hypothetical future.
The Congressional Budget Office and Social Security Administration had assumed more than 2 million net immigrants into the United States in 2025. That would have translated into approximately 1.3 million additional workers. The gap between projections and reality is over 2 million workers.
The STEM Talent Factor
Not all workers contribute equally to productivity growth. This isn’t about value as human beings – it’s about economic measurement. Highly skilled workers in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics fields have an outsized impact on productivity and innovation.
Research by economists Giovanni Peri, Kevin Shih, and Chad Sparber found that inflows of foreign STEM workers explained between 30% and 50% of aggregate U.S. productivity growth between 1990 and 2010. Let that sink in. Half of our productivity gains in a 20-year period came from foreign STEM talent.
George Mason University economics professor Michael Clemens calculated that this means up to one-sixth of total U.S. economic growth during that period was due to the flow of foreign-born professionals in science and engineering fields. For more on how this affects H-1B workers specifically, check out our detailed analysis.
The Unemployment Paradox
Proponents of immigration restrictions often argue that reducing foreign workers will benefit American workers. The data doesn’t support this claim.
There’s no evidence that U.S.-born workers have benefited from the decline in foreign-born workers. The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers was 4.3% in November 2025 compared to 3.9% in November 2024. That’s actually worse, not better.
The labor force participation rate for U.S.-born workers remained unchanged at 61.6% over the same period. If reducing immigration was supposed to bring more Americans into the workforce, it’s not working.
This makes economic sense when you understand how labor markets actually work. Immigrants don’t just take jobs; they create them. They start businesses. They fill positions that allow companies to expand. They generate demand for goods and services. The economy isn’t a fixed pie.
Industry-by-Industry Impact
Different industries face different challenges from reduced immigration. Let me walk through some of the most affected sectors.
Technology is perhaps the most obviously affected. With approximately 70% of graduate students in AI-related fields being international students, restrictions on these students directly impact innovation capacity. Companies are already struggling to fill positions. Check our tech industry analysis for more details.
Healthcare faces a critical shortage of workers at all levels. From doctors to nurses to home health aides, immigrants fill essential roles. The nursing shortage was severe before these policies; it’s becoming critical now.
Agriculture relies heavily on immigrant labor. Without sufficient workers to harvest crops, farmers face devastating losses. Some are leaving fields unharvested because there simply aren’t enough workers.
Construction cannot find enough skilled tradespeople. Housing costs are already high; reducing the construction workforce will make them worse.
Hospitality and food service depend on immigrant workers for both entry-level and skilled positions. According to immigration attorneys, many businesses in these sectors are struggling to maintain operations.
The Fiscal Impact
There’s also a fiscal dimension to consider. Immigrants contribute to government finances through taxes. They pay income taxes, Social Security taxes, and Medicare taxes. Many pay these taxes for decades before becoming eligible for benefits.
When you reduce immigration, you reduce this tax base. Social Security’s finances, already stressed by an aging population, become more precarious. Medicare faces similar challenges.
At the same time, government spending on enforcement has increased. The combination of reduced revenue and increased spending creates fiscal pressure that will eventually have to be addressed through higher taxes or reduced services.
The Competitiveness Question
America doesn’t exist in isolation. We’re competing with other countries for talent, investment, and economic leadership. What happens when we restrict immigration while our competitors welcome it?
Canada has explicitly positioned itself as an alternative to the United States for skilled immigrants. Their Express Entry system processes applications quickly and prioritizes economic contribution. Many immigrants who would have come to the U.S. are now choosing Canada.
China is investing heavily in bringing back overseas Chinese talent. Their “Thousand Talents” program and similar initiatives offer attractive packages to researchers and entrepreneurs.
European countries are updating their immigration systems to attract global talent. The UK’s points-based system, Germany’s skilled worker pathway, and similar programs are designed to compete with us.
When talented people have choices, they go where they’re wanted. Increasingly, that’s not America. For guidance on navigating these changes, check our resources section.
What Business Leaders Are Saying
The business community has been vocal about these concerns. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce joined the lawsuit against the $100,000 H-1B fee. Tech companies have publicly opposed various restrictions. Even companies that generally avoid political controversy are speaking out.
The Association of American Universities, representing the nation’s leading research institutions, has also joined legal challenges. They understand that their ability to attract and retain global talent is at stake.
When both business and academia are aligned in opposition, that should signal something to policymakers. Unfortunately, those signals are being ignored.
The Path Forward
I want to be honest with you: the near-term outlook is challenging. The current administration shows no signs of changing course on immigration policy. Lawsuits may provide some relief, but courts have given the executive branch significant deference on immigration matters.
However, economic reality has a way of asserting itself. Labor shortages are real. Companies are struggling. Farmers can’t harvest crops. Hospitals can’t staff beds. At some point, these realities will force policy adjustments.
In the meantime, what can you do? Stay informed about policy changes and their implications. If you’re an employer, develop strategies for working within the constraints. If you’re an immigrant or potential immigrant, explore multiple pathways and geographic options. If you’re a citizen who cares about these issues, make your voice heard. Visit our immigration resources for ongoing updates.
Frequently Asked Questions
Q: How is the 6.8 million worker reduction calculated?
A: NFAP aggregates projected reductions from multiple policy changes including family immigration bans, refugee reductions, TPS terminations, and H-1B restrictions, comparing them to baseline projections.
Q: Will reducing immigration lower unemployment for American workers?
A: Current data shows no such effect. The unemployment rate for U.S.-born workers has slightly increased, not decreased, since immigration restrictions began.
Q: How do STEM immigrants contribute to productivity?
A: Research shows foreign STEM workers explained 30-50% of U.S. productivity growth from 1990-2010 through innovation, patents, new technologies, and business creation.
Q: Which industries are most affected by reduced immigration?
A: Technology, healthcare, agriculture, construction, and hospitality face the most immediate challenges due to their heavy reliance on immigrant workers at various skill levels.
Q: What’s the fiscal impact of reduced immigration?
A: Fewer immigrants means a smaller tax base for programs like Social Security and Medicare, compounding fiscal challenges from an aging native-born population.
Q: Are other countries benefiting from U.S. immigration restrictions?
A: Yes, Canada, the UK, Germany, and others are actively recruiting skilled immigrants who might have previously chosen the United States, gaining talent and economic growth.